Global Oil Data Deck (March ‘23)

Market flips back into oversupply in January from December’s mild deficit as a typical seasonal pullback in demand was exacerbated by Europe’s warm winter.

This 59-page March 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

This month, I’ve added some of my Russian export tracking exhibits powered by Vortexa [direct representative link] data initially revealed in Russian Oil’s Seaborne Export Geography as well as, thanks to a subscriber request, my real-time Guyanese production tracking initially explored in New Guyana on the Block in the supply section of the report.

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Overview

• Crude prices cratered to lows of $70 per barrel Brent basis in mid-March on the back of large-scale speculative position liquidations that were prompted by banking sector concerns; the futures curve have flattened materially, with year-forward calendar spreads falling as low as $2.30/bbl, and currently sit around $3.50/bbl, while flat prices have recovered slightly to around $76/bbl Brent basis.

• Global oil market balances flipped back into a notable surplus of 1.7 MMbpd in January from December’s mild deficit due to a seasonal pullback exacerbated by a warm European winter—the full extent of the demand slump was certainly blunted by a rebound in Chinese apparent consumption.