Global Oil Data Deck (June 2024)
Oil market deficits persisted through April but balances continue to gradually loosen as both supply and demand growth slow
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Overview
The global liquids balance remained in a mild deficit of roughly 0.4 MMbpd April, representing a slightly tighter market than March but still trending looser relative to an overall tighter Q1 market.
Both supply and demand growth are slowing in year-over-year terms, with US crude production still gradually recovering from January storm effects and Chinese demand running headlong into difficult to beat base effects from last year’s gangbusters strength.
Crude prices have firmed over the past month, with Brent prices ~$3/bbl higher to around $85/bbl supported by a rapidly restrengthening futures curve and with go-forward financial market pressure tilted to the upside given immensely oversold speculative positioning.