Global Oil Data Deck (June 2024)

Oil market deficits persisted through April but balances continue to gradually loosen as both supply and demand growth slow

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Overview

• The global liquids balance remained in a mild deficit of roughly 0.4 MMbpd April, representing a slightly tighter market than March but still trending looser relative to an overall tighter Q1 market.

• Both supply and demand growth are slowing in year-over-year terms, with US crude production still gradually recovering from January storm effects and Chinese demand running headlong into difficult to beat base effects from last year’s gangbusters strength.

• Crude prices have firmed over the past month, with Brent prices ~$3/bbl higher to around $85/bbl supported by a rapidly restrengthening futures curve and with go-forward financial market pressure tilted to the upside given immensely oversold speculative positioning.