Global Oil Data Deck (June '22)
April global oil balances reached their most oversupplied level since the initial pandemic demand shock in early 2020
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Overview
Crude oil prices have continued to trade with extreme volatility over the past month, reaching their highest level since early-March before falling back in sympathy with the broader souring of macroeconomic sentiment; meanwhile, crack spreads remain near record-high levels amidst the ongoing refining capacity crisis.
Global oil balances weakened further in April on the back of China’s draconian COVID-zero lockdowns, reaching their most oversupplied level since the initial pandemic demand shock in early 2020.
Global visible petroleum inventories build mildly in April, reaching their highest level since last November—which is still extremely low by historical comparison.
Global oil supply contracted by 1 MMbpd m/m in April as Russian production finally fell back on sanctions pressure; however, early indications are that Russian supply has recovered materially through the first half of June.
Global oil demand eased materially in April: consumption contracted month-over-month across all major regions and all three major transportation fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), largely due to Chinese lockdowns.