Global Oil Data Deck (June '22)

April global oil balances reached their most oversupplied level since the initial pandemic demand shock in early 2020

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Overview

• Crude oil prices have continued to trade with extreme volatility over the past month, reaching their highest level since early-March before falling back in sympathy with the broader souring of macroeconomic sentiment; meanwhile, crack spreads remain near record-high levels amidst the ongoing refining capacity crisis.

• Global oil balances weakened further in April on the back of China’s draconian COVID-zero lockdowns, reaching their most oversupplied level since the initial pandemic demand shock in early 2020.

• Global visible petroleum inventories build mildly in April, reaching their highest level since last November—which is still extremely low by historical comparison.

• Global oil supply contracted by 1 MMbpd m/m in April as Russian production finally fell back on sanctions pressure; however, early indications are that Russian supply has recovered materially through the first half of June.

• Global oil demand eased materially in April: consumption contracted month-over-month across all major regions and all three major transportation fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), largely due to Chinese lockdowns.