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Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (July ‘23)

Global Oil Data Deck (July ‘23)

Global oil market balances tightened substantially in May, to the most undersupplied level on both a monthly and rolling-quarterly basis since February 2022

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Jul 20, 2023
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Commodity Context
Commodity Context
Global Oil Data Deck (July ‘23)
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Check out my latest interview with Jack Farley on the Forward Guidance podcast where I talk through a bunch of the themes you’ll find here in this month’s Global Oil Data Deck. (Video link here, audio link here)


This 60-page July 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

Become a paid subscriber today to view the full report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

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Overview

  • Brent crude prices have risen from a low of $72/bbl in late June to roughly $80/bbl at the time of writing (mid-July), finally breaking from the tight ~$72-78/bbl range-trade in which we’ve been stuck, effectively, since the end of April.

  • Global oil market balances tightened substantially in May to their most undersupplied level, on both a monthly and rolling-quarterly basis, since February 2022.

  • Demand growth remains underpinned by Chinese performance—coming off last year’s depressed base effects, of course—as well as robust advances in India and the Middle East; consumption has been far more staid across much of the rest of the world.

  • Supply contracted notably as OPEC+ voluntary cuts, initially announced in April and effective in May, began, with the largest reductions coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Kuwait and the UAE; growth elsewhere was far more subdued with a sprinkling of positive gains across Brazil, Iran, and Libya.

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