Global Oil Data Deck (July ‘23)

Global oil market balances tightened substantially in May, to the most undersupplied level on both a monthly and rolling-quarterly basis since February 2022

Check out my latest interview with Jack Farley on the Forward Guidance podcast where I talk through a bunch of the themes you’ll find here in this month’s Global Oil Data Deck. (Video link here, audio link here)

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Overview

• Brent crude prices have risen from a low of $72/bbl in late June to roughly $80/bbl at the time of writing (mid-July), finally breaking from the tight ~$72-78/bbl range-trade in which we’ve been stuck, effectively, since the end of April.

• Global oil market balances tightened substantially in May to their most undersupplied level, on both a monthly and rolling-quarterly basis, since February 2022.

• Demand growth remains underpinned by Chinese performance—coming off last year’s depressed base effects, of course—as well as robust advances in India and the Middle East; consumption has been far more staid across much of the rest of the world.

• Supply contracted notably as OPEC+ voluntary cuts, initially announced in April and effective in May, began, with the largest reductions coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Kuwait and the UAE; growth elsewhere was far more subdued with a sprinkling of positive gains across Brazil, Iran, and Libya.