Global Oil Data Deck (July 2025)
Oil markets tightened in May despite notable stateside demand weakness while June looks caught between strengthening Chinese demand and the realization of OPEC output hikes.
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Overview
Global liquids balances tightened in May but remained in modest surplus thanks to US demand weakness stemming from trade war-related commercial shipping headwinds, with inventory builds once again confirming this estimated surplus. While US demand weakness is expected to be broadly transitory, the market will have far more supply with which to contend—from both OPEC’s ongoing ramp and the bounce-back in Canadian supplies. Chinese demand has begun to show signs of life in June for the first time since the hay-day of record-setting apparent consumption in 2023.
Crude flat price and term structure have eased off though July after heightened levels through the end of June; prompt timespreads, while weaker, remain firmly backwardated and continue to signal ongoing spot market tightness.
[Full PDF Deck and Flow-Level Analysis Below Paywall]