Global Oil Data Deck (July 2024)

Modest oil market deficits persisted through May but the underlying drivers of that deficit are beginning to weaken as demand growth slows faster than supply.

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Overview

• The global liquids balance remained in a mild deficit of roughly 0.4 MMbpd in May, but the drivers of that deficit are weakening; previously China-supported global demand growth is slowing faster than supply.

• Crude prices are effectively flat on the past month with Brent recovering some recent losses to trade around $85/bbl at the time of publication; term structure continues to strengthen and Brent 2nd-3rd month spreads are currently sitting at their most backwardated level since mid-April.