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Global Oil Data Deck (January 2025)
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Global Oil Data Deck (January 2025)

Oil markets flipped back to a small surplus in November for the first time since March, but inventories continue to draw, term structure has strengthened and speculators have returned with a vengeance

Rory Johnston's avatar
Rory Johnston
Jan 22, 2025
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Global Oil Data Deck (January 2025)
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This 64-page January 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

Become a paid subscriber today to view the full Global Oil Data Deck report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.

If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.


Overview

  • Global liquids balances loosened further in November to a small 0.2 MMbpd surplus, the first surplus since March 2024, in the face of stable supplies and a ~1 MMbpd seasonal pullback in demand. However, keeping the recent trend of a grinding deceleration across the oil market, global supply and demand were both modestly lower in November compared to the same period last year.

  • Crude prices finally broke out of their stubborn trading range in early January, rocketing nearly $10/bbl from the low-$70s of late-December to low-$80s (Brent basis) as of last week. Tighter spot markets—confirmed by rapid strengthening of crude term structure—were accompanied by a return of hot money that brought speculators from chronically underbought back to overstretched long in a matter of weeks.

[Full PDF Deck and Analysis Below Paywall]

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