Global Oil Data Deck (January 2025)
Oil markets flipped back to a small surplus in November for the first time since March, but inventories continue to draw, term structure has strengthened and speculators have returned with a vengeance
This 64-page January 2025 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.
If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.
Overview
Global liquids balances loosened further in November to a small 0.2 MMbpd surplus, the first surplus since March 2024, in the face of stable supplies and a ~1 MMbpd seasonal pullback in demand. However, keeping the recent trend of a grinding deceleration across the oil market, global supply and demand were both modestly lower in November compared to the same period last year.
Crude prices finally broke out of their stubborn trading range in early January, rocketing nearly $10/bbl from the low-$70s of late-December to low-$80s (Brent basis) as of last week. Tighter spot markets—confirmed by rapid strengthening of crude term structure—were accompanied by a return of hot money that brought speculators from chronically underbought back to overstretched long in a matter of weeks.
[Full PDF Deck and Analysis Below Paywall]