Global Oil Data Deck (January 2024)

Oil market balances loosened further in November as an exaggerated seasonal pullback in demand ran up against flat supply.

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Overview

• Global oil market balances loosened further in November to a very minor undersupply as an exaggerated seasonal pullback in demand ran up against steady supply.

• While still technically undersupplied according to our latest estimates, the momentum clearly leans toward softer conditions heading into end-2023, which further supports OPEC+’s decision to cut production further beginning January 2024.

• Crude prices have remained stubbornly range bound between $76-81/bbl year-to-date in 2024; Brent currently sits at the upper end of that range with apparent upside pressure building.

• Both the WTI and Brent futures curves have reverted to steepening backwardation after drifting into contango late last year, with the bulk of spot market pressure coming from a combination of temporary recent supply outages and delayed deliveries stemming from Red Sea crisis rerouting.