Global Oil Data Deck (February 2025)
Oil markets returned to supply deficit in December as global demand growth reaccelerated while aggregate supply continued to flatline.
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Overview
Global liquids balances retightened, flipping back into a supply deficit of 0.5 MMbpd in December from November’s upwardly-revised surplus; demand growth accelerated while supply gains remained muted. Initial estimates indicate that demand exceeded supply by 0.5-0.6 MMbpd, on average, over the course of 2024, which was confirmed by roughly equivalent draws from visible inventories.
Crude prices gave back almost all of their Trump-bump gains over the past month. Brent contracts had risen from the low-$70s in late-December to >$82/bbl around the time of Trump’s second inauguration but have since fallen back to the mid-$70s. While there has been a legitimate deterioration in previously-tight prompt market conditions (i.e., term structure has rapidly weakened), there is also no doubt that sentiment has suffered from Trump’s relentless, generally price bearish proclamations—from Drill, Baby, Drill to urging OPEC+ to lift output and reduce prices. Still, speculative positioning remains elevated and will remain a near-term headwind for prices as overbought levels are necessarily rationalized.
[Full PDF Deck and Country-Level Analysis Below Paywall]