Global Oil Data Deck (February 2024)
Global Oil Data Deck (February 2024)
Market balances exited 2023 in mild supply surplus after a year defined by strong demand growth, surprisingly robust non-OPEC supply gains, and ever-deepening OPEC+ market support.
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Summary
Global oil market balances continued to loosen and ended 2023 in mild supply surplus, though this is expected to shift back into deficit in early 2024 given the combination of the next round of OPEC+ cuts and weather effects.
Overall in 2024, annual average global liquids demand grew by a robust 2.3 MMbpd to average 102.1 MMbpd, driven overwhelmingly by China, while supply advanced 1.7 MMbpd to average 101.5 MMbpd, with growth driven by non-OECD Americas (US/Brazil/Guyana) and exempted OPEC members (Iran/Libya).
Crude prices continue to test resistance around $83.50/bbl (Brent), though have thus far been unable to durable break higher and prices currently sit just below those year-to-date high-water marks at around $82/bbl.