Global Oil Data Deck (February ‘23)

Markets shifted to a supply deficit in December for the first time since June on the back of strong Asian demand outside of China.

This 56-page February 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers. This month, I’ve given the deck a fresh coat of paint, including reordering a number of pages for greater clarity, and updating the inventories section to better reflect the importance of commercial inventories over total stocks (incl. SPR), as I explored in How Do Oil Inventories Drive Crude Prices?. The Data Decks will continue to evolve alongside my ongoing research.

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Overview

• Currently in the low-$80s per barrel Brent basis, Crude prices remain firm but nowhere near the crisis levels of last year; contracts have stayed range-bound between $78-88/bbl, while year-forward calendar spreads are fairly stable at between $4.50-6/bbl.

• Most notably, global oil market balances flipped into a slim supply deficit of 0.2 MMbpd in December for the first time in a half-year as supply fell faster than demand, with the latter supported by strong Asian consumption outside China.