Global Oil Data Deck (August ‘23)

Global oil market balances tightened further in June to the most undersupplied level since summer 2021 on fresh record-high demand—and that’s before Saudi production cuts hit the tape in July.

This 60-page August 2023 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.

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Overview

• Brent crude prices continued to rise over the past month, moving from around $80/bbl in mid-July to roughly $84/bbl today, with a high of ~$88/bbl that nearly set a fresh year-to-date record earlier this month; this latest rally has rescued the barrel from its months-long lower $72-78/bbl range, which was triggered initially in mid-March with the mini US banking crisis and only briefly interrupted by OPEC+’s surprise production cut. 

• Now, prices appear to be confidently back in the $80-88/bbl range—where they traded previously, between December and mid-March—but aren’t likely to rise durably higher until mounting global supply deficits are proven. 

• Indeed, global oil market balances continued to tighten to extremely undersupplied levels through June, marking the largest monthly deficits since the summer of 2021.

• Global oil demand reached a fresh record-high in June. Reaccelerating demand growth remains underpinned by abnormally—and suspiciously—strong Chinese apparent consumption data, while the rest of the world is beginning to show signs of durable growth.

• Meanwhile, global liquids supply rose only modestly through June and will likely pull back materially through July as Saudi Arabia’s unilateral product cuts hit the market.

[Full 60-page PDF below paywall]