Global Oil Data Deck (August ‘23)
Global oil market balances tightened further in June to the most undersupplied level since summer 2021 on fresh record-high demand—and that’s before Saudi production cuts hit the tape in July.
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Brent crude prices continued to rise over the past month, moving from around $80/bbl in mid-July to roughly $84/bbl today, with a high of ~$88/bbl that nearly set a fresh year-to-date record earlier this month; this latest rally has rescued the barrel from its months-long lower $72-78/bbl range, which was triggered initially in mid-March with the mini US banking crisis and only briefly interrupted by OPEC+’s surprise production cut.
Now, prices appear to be confidently back in the $80-88/bbl range—where they traded previously, between December and mid-March—but aren’t likely to rise durably higher until mounting global supply deficits are proven.
Indeed, global oil market balances continued to tighten to extremely undersupplied levels through June, marking the largest monthly deficits since the summer of 2021.
Global oil demand reached a fresh record-high in June. Reaccelerating demand growth remains underpinned by abnormally—and suspiciously—strong Chinese apparent consumption data, while the rest of the world is beginning to show signs of durable growth.
Meanwhile, global liquids supply rose only modestly through June and will likely pull back materially through July as Saudi Arabia’s unilateral product cuts hit the market.
[Full 60-page PDF below paywall]